Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
33 0x33c9…6f9a sports 301 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$17,438 (+3%) realized +$19,242 · open −$1,804
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%159W / 403L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,144per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$6,526est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$17,236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$7,722
other 18% +$12,517
crypto 1% −$470
politics 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-54.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 310 -86.8% -88.1% 7% 7% -78.7%
≤30d 363 -70.7% -73.5% 16% 15% -58.6%
≤90d 562 -49.8% -54.6% 28% 27% -41.3%
all 562 -49.8% -54.6% 28% 27% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.6% 27% -41.3%
10% -58.9% 23% -46.9%
15% ← realistic here -62.9% 18% -52.0%
20% -66.5% 15% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$2,150) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,235 vs −$1,342 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$17,236
Realized+$19,242
Unrealized−$1,804
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses159 / 403
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$6,526
Open positions11
Markets (closed)562 / 301
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$2,144
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 562 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin Jiri Lehecka 77¢ 76¢ $3,688 $3,666 −$22 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 88¢ $3,531 $3,597 +$65 (+2%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 100¢ $680 $1,999 +$1,319 (+194%)
Wimbledon ATP: Adrian Mannarino vs Titouan Droguet Adrian Mannarino 63¢ 64¢ $1,897 $1,905 +$8 (+0%)
Wimbledon ATP: Mariano Navone vs Flavio Cobolli Mariano Navone 26¢ 24¢ $1,815 $1,665 −$149 (-8%)
Wimbledon ATP: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alejandro Tabilo Kamil Majchrzak 68¢ 66¢ $1,700 $1,662 −$38 (-2%)
Wimbledon ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Arthur Fils Raphael Collignon 45¢ 44¢ $1,376 $1,331 −$45 (-3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Alex Molcan 49¢ 48¢ $735 $727 −$7 (-1%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $607 $563 −$43 (-7%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $170 $117 −$53 (-31%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $2,840 $2 −$2,838 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-02-15? Jun 29 $648 −$648 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 29 $3,587 −$3,587 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Tomas Etcheverry vs Terence Atmane Jun 29 $1,414 −$1,414 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 29 $3,289 −$3,289 -100%
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils Jun 29 $740 −$740 -100%
Wizards vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5 Jun 29 $780 −$780 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Tallon Griekspoor Jun 29 $619 −$619 -100%
Heat vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5 Jun 29 $520 −$520 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 29 $510 −$510 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Jun 29 $510 −$510 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Marcos Giron vs Casper Ruud Jun 29 $1,429 −$538 -38%
Dallas Open: Adam Walton vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 29 $1,846 −$1,846 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Adam Walton vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 29 $1,367 −$1,367 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Jun 29 $630 −$630 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Karen Khachanov Jun 29 $946 −$946 -100%
Mexican Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Coleman Wong Jun 29 $708 −$708 -100%
New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $765 −$765 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Jun 29 $741 −$741 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 29 $528 −$528 -100%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Arthur Gea vs Patrick Kypson Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Coleman Wong vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 29 $1,306 −$1,306 -100%
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Roberto Carballe Jun 29 $603 −$603 -100%
Miami Open: Arthur Cazaux vs Tomas Barrios Jun 29 $4,550 −$4,550 -100%
Miami Open: Rafael Jodar vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 29 $114 −$114 -100%
Miami Open: Reilly Opelka vs Nuno Borges Jun 29 $920 −$920 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Sebastian Baez vs Stan Wawrinka Jun 29 $480 −$480 -100%
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Ugo Humbert Jun 29 $925 −$925 -100%
Miami Open: Moise Kouame vs Zachary Svajda Jun 29 $7,726 −$7,726 -100%
Argentina Open, Qualification: Daniel Galan vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Rio Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $6,521 −$6,521 -100%
Mavericks vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $1,710 −$1,710 -100%
Mexican Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 29 $4,205 −$4,205 -100%
Qatar Open: Valentin Royer vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Jun 29 $363 −$363 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Wild Jun 29 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Jun 29 $572 −$572 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Com Jun 29 $705 −$705 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-10.5) Jun 29 $467 −$467 -100%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Jun 29 $3,004 −$3,004 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Varvara Gracheva vs Jessica Pegu Jun 29 $243 −$243 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 29 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 29 $840 −$840 -100%
Magic vs. Lakers Jun 29 $518 −$518 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rinky Hijik Jun 29 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Marcos Giron Jun 29 $3,558 −$3,558 -100%
Magic vs. Bucks Jun 29 $540 −$540 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jun 29 $135 −$135 -100%
Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 29 $157 −$157 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Jun 29 $2,425 −$2,425 -100%
Hornets vs. Kings Jun 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $693 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,840 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $764 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $71 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $440 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $157 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $108 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 4h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,025 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 70¢ $1,119 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 70¢ $1,670 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Jannik Sinner 70¢ $10 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jiri Lehecka 77¢ $8 29h
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jiri Lehecka 77¢ $7 29h
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jiri Lehecka 77¢ $4 31h
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jiri Lehecka 77¢ $3 31h
Wimbledon ATP: Mariano Navone vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Mariano Navone 26¢ $896 32h
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $925 32h
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Jiri Lehecka 77¢ $2,045 32h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 66¢ $1,228 32h
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Hugo Gaston 33¢ $337 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,235.56 · official $17,235.56 (match) · 3500 history records