Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33c9…5124 crypto 828 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$895 (-3%) realized −$895 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%405W / 668L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day73.9pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$1,692
sports 16% −$245
other 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 368 -84.4% -85.9% 8% 8% -92.8%
≤30d 819 -28.0% -34.8% 36% 36% -44.9%
≤90d 1073 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 37% -30.0%
all 1073 -21.7% -29.2% 38% 37% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 37% -30.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 36% -36.7%
15% -42.1% 36% -42.9%
20% -47.8% 35% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$895
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses405 / 668
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1073 / 828
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$40
Trades / day73.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1073 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Jun 28 $43 −$65 -152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $59 −$59 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $39 −$39 -100%
Bucks vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5) Jun 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. Hornets: O/U 222.5 Jun 28 $65 −$65 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers: O/U 223.5 Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-1.5) Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Nets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5 Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Capitals vs. Oilers Jun 28 $43 −$36 -82%
Rockets vs. Hornets Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 4h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 24¢ $5 5h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 32¢ $10 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 34¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records