Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x33c3…09db sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$449 (+32%) realized +$415 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$401
sports 43% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 60% +1.8%
≤30d 5 -3.8% -13.0% 80% 60% +1.8%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 83% 67% +4.6%
all 7 +15.3% +4.4% 86% 71% +23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.4% 71% +23.2%
10% -5.6% 29% +11.4%
15% -14.8% 14% +0.6%
20% -23.1% 14% -9.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$30 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.43 per $1 lost it wins $16.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized+$415
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage119d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 99¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $100 +$18 +18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $121 +$39 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $143 +$14 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $101 +$21 +21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $499 +$93 +19%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $286 +$308 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $121 25h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $157 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $143 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 82¢ $101 2d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $592 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $499 81d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $286 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.39 · official $134.39 (match) · 14 history records