Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33c3…4dce crypto 119 markets active 3d ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$141 (-2%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%49W / 70L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$128
14 days+$128
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$158
crypto 24% −$198
politics 14% −$530
other 8% +$345
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 38% -2.6%
≤30d 64 -0.8% -10.2% 47% 38% -2.6%
≤90d 108 -9.2% -17.9% 40% 34% -9.3%
all 119 -9.3% -17.9% 41% 36% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 36% -11.8%
10% -25.8% 30% -20.2%
15% -33.0% 27% -27.9%
20% -39.5% 23% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$45 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses49 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage377d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$50 -48%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $129 −$4 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $77 +$78 +101%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $108 +$171 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $112 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$88 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$41 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$51 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$11 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$12 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $47 +$36 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$15 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$22 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$12 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $107 −$55 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$8 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $49 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $48 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $55 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $155 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $77 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 80¢ $77 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $79 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $279 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $108 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $108 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $112 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $140 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $56 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 637 history records