Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33c2…9818 other 232 markets active 5d ago coverage 257d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 256d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$95,790 (-27%) realized −$95,790 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%101W / 132L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,551per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 257d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$26,882
world 26% +$393
sports 16% −$9,506
crypto 12% +$2,349
politics 3% +$1,513
tech 2% −$5,409
finance 1% −$3,603
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -23.6% -30.8% 33% 33% +21.6%
≤30d 4 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 50% +10.3%
≤90d 144 -61.9% -65.5% 15% 15% -52.6%
all 233 -12.1% -20.5% 43% 41% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 41% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 37% -28.3%
15% -35.1% 33% -35.2%
20% -41.4% 29% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,574) neutral
Persistence
early +36% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$908 vs −$1,010 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95,790
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses101 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions0
Markets (closed)233 / 232
History coverage257d ⚠
Avg bet$1,551
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 233 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 29 $399 −$399 -100%
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? Jun 24 $27 −$11 -40%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,569 +$1,095 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2,811 +$368 +13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $11,391 +$4,956 +44%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 13 $9,629 +$1,873 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 10 $3,236 +$1,728 +53%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 30 $660 +$340 +52%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2,374 −$2,346 -99%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $2,444 −$2,411 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,763 +$945 +54%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $4,178 −$4,155 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $9,296 −$1,949 -21%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $600 −$369 -62%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 22 $600 +$586 +98%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $4,393 +$2,567 +58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $24,700 +$158 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 20 $640 −$640 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 20 $2,309 −$2,296 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 20 $453 −$449 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 20 $226 −$219 -97%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1,060 +$774 +73%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $1,970 −$1,941 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $2,933 −$2,884 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 19 $2,032 −$2,012 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 19 $759 −$709 -93%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2,249 +$1,644 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $2,092 +$1,258 +60%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 16 $1,140 +$860 +75%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $1,620 +$380 +24%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $640 −$625 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $1,243 +$707 +57%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 12 $286 −$46 -16%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $963 +$641 +67%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $410 −$403 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 10 $325 −$325 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 10 $1,968 −$474 -24%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-26? Apr 10 $390 −$390 -100%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 10 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5) Apr 10 $539 −$539 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $436 −$436 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2025-10-11? Apr 10 $286 −$286 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 10 $549 −$549 -100%
Will Girona win on 2025-11-30? Apr 10 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25? Apr 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Apr 10 $85 −$34 -40%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-19? Apr 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 10 $129 −$129 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? SELL Yes $16 5d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $193 5d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2,471 5d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $0 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $0 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $1,121 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $7 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $22 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $20 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $18 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $77 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 59¢ $1,110 64d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,222 64d
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,222 64d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,080 64d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $833 64d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,265 64d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $722 64d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,041 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $71 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2,025 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $9 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $27 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes $16 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records