Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33bf…5a8a sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-2%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%55W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$11
14 days+$6
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$11
other 27% −$63
world 2% +$2
crypto 2% +$2
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.1% +1.4% 75% 50% -0.6%
≤30d 83 -6.9% -15.8% 60% 35% -11.5%
≤90d 95 -10.9% -19.4% 58% 35% -12.1%
all 95 -10.9% -19.4% 58% 35% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 35% -12.1%
10% -27.1% 23% -20.5%
15% -34.1% 14% -28.2%
20% -40.6% 8% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses55 / 40
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage42d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +60%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $30 +$2 +8%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +214%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$4 -63%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $5 +$2 +42%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$1 -49%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $3 +$10 +322%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija vs. Kōchi United SC end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will RB Ōmiya Ardija win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 $0 +2%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Thailand vs. Kuwait end in a draw? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +40%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Andorra vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $40 +$2 +6%
Will DR Congo vs. Denmark end in a draw? Jun 03 $70 +$3 +4%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $2 −$2 -77%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $40 +$6 +15%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $20 +$3 +13%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Myanmar Jun 03 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 03 $25 +$1 +4%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $30 −$11 -35%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $40 +$5 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $10 −$2 -18%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $20 +$5 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL South Africa 68¢ $5 15m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY South Africa 67¢ $5 27m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m SELL Yes 84¢ $30 48m
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 25h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $33 27h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $30 31h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 99¢ $21 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 95¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 9d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 12d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 12d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 12d
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 12d
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 12d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 12d
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL paiN Gaming 99¢ $7 12d
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 69¢ $5 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend $1 13d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 95¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 216 history records