Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x33bf…c1da other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4 (+5%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$4
sports 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 -25.9% -33.0% 33% 33% -45.8%
all 8 +29.0% +16.7% 38% 38% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 38% -3.5%
10% +5.6% 38% -12.8%
15% -4.6% 38% -21.2%
20% -14.0% 38% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$8 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage91d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $8 +$13 +165%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $6 +$29 +488%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 41d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 62d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 62d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 63d
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 89d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 90d
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 91d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.88 · official $13.14 · 13 history records