Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33be…adc8
world · 44 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$9 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$39 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,158
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions34
Markets (closed)10 / 44
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 34 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $146 $151 +$5 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $145 $144 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $158 $140 −$19 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $92 $114 +$22 (+24%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $117 $101 −$16 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $89 $75 −$13 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $32 $59 +$27 (+86%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $97 $58 −$39 (-40%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $44 $58 +$14 (+32%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $51 $44 −$8 (-15%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $46 $41 −$5 (-11%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 13¢ $3 $23 +$21 (+751%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Elon Bull Run Parlay Yes $18 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $28 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 50¢ 41¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ismael Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $29 +$7 +24%
Will Tahith Chong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 +$4 +46%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $37 +$36 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $18 +$4 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $23 +$10 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$13 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $8 $0 -2%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% −$35
world 32% −$12
crypto 6% +$22
tech 2% +$36
economics 2% −$14
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes $3 38m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $48 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 60% +9.4%
≤30d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 60% +9.4%
≤90d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 60% +9.4%
all 10 +2.8% -7.0% 60% 60% +9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 60% +9.4%
10% -15.9% 60% -1.1%
15% -24.0% 30% -10.6%
20% -31.4% 10% -19.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,158.34 · official $1,158.34 (match) · 88 history records