Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33ba…5b15
other · 149 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$591 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$584 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$415
Realized+$584
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses65 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)140 / 149
History coverage470d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 9 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$178
14 days+$308
30 days+$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? No 90¢ 98¢ $190 $207 +$17 (+9%)
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $101 $123 +$22 (+22%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 56¢ 48¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-15%)
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? Yes 89¢ 69¢ $19 $14 −$4 (-22%)
Will Crysencio Summerville be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Yes 88¢ 52¢ $18 $11 −$8 (-41%)
Will Tsuyoshi Watanabe be in Japan's Starting 11? Yes 91¢ 49¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-46%)
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? Yes 92¢ 52¢ $15 $8 −$6 (-43%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be in Spain's Starting 11? No 12¢ 9¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? No 0¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? No 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jérémy Doku be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -44%
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 12 $12 +$62 +527%
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 12 $14 +$98 +689%
Will Cody Gakpo be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Will Virgil van Dijk be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 12 $3 +$20 +662%
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $60 +$137 +228%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 24 $14 −$9 -68%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $18 −$18 -100%
ChatGPT Outage by April 3? Apr 02 $31 +$67 +216%
ChatGPT Outage by March 27? Apr 02 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Xi events on October 29? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Nixon" during Xi events on October 29? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during Xi events on October 29? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Submarine" during Xi events on October 29? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Mar 23 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in October? Mar 23 $16 −$9 -57%
Will Trump say "Mineral" during Xi events on October 29? Mar 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Mar 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Chip" during Xi events on October 29? Mar 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Mar 07 $33 −$33 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Mar 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Owen Cooper be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Mar 07 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Mar 07 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $35 +$64 +182%
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Dec 04 $2 +$46 +2539%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $10 +$15 +150%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Nov 13 $41 −$41 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelt Nov 13 $10 +$4 +42%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Nov 13 $273 −$273 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $10 +$189 +1883%
Will Karla Sofía Gascón be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Sear Nov 12 $7 +$11 +159%
Will Mikey Madison be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 20 Nov 12 $36 +$50 +139%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Nov 11 $35 +$50 +143%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Nov 11 $35 +$50 +144%
Will SWAG (Justin Bieber) be nominated for Album of the Year at the 68 Nov 08 $4 $0 +11%
Will American Heart (Benson Boone) be nominated for Album of the Year Nov 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mayhem (Lady Gaga) be nominated for Album of the Year at the 68th Nov 08 $18 $0 +2%
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) be nominated for Album of the Year at the 68 Nov 08 $24 $0 +2%
Will Beethoven Blues (Jon Batiste) be nominated for Album of the Year Nov 08 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Peanut" in November? Nov 06 $10 +$19 +183%
Will Ousmane Dembélé be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Nov 06 $42 −$13 -30%
Will Naomi Osaka be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Nov 06 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year? Nov 06 $14 −$8 -54%
Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2 Nov 03 $92 −$78 -84%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Nov 02 $2 +$2 +60%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Oct 31 $8 +$4 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 24% +$327
politics 21% +$252
culture 16% +$176
sports 15% −$212
tech 10% −$102
world 8% +$12
crypto 6% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jérémy Doku be in Belgium's Starting 11? SELL No 4¢ $1 2h
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $14 2h
Will Cody Gakpo be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL No 4¢ $1 2h
Will Virgil van Dijk be in Netherlands's Starting 11? SELL No 1¢ $0 2h
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? SELL Yes 94¢ $8 2h
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 2h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 94¢ $23 2h
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $0 2h
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 77¢ $72 2h
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? SELL Yes 90¢ $99 2h
Will Cody Gakpo be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 3¢ $1 4h
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Jonathan Tah be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY No 2¢ $0 4h
Will Jérémy Doku be in Belgium's Starting 11? BUY No 7¢ $1 4h
Will Virgil van Dijk be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY No 5¢ $1 5h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 12¢ $0 5h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 12¢ $1 5h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 12¢ $1 5h
Will Lucas Paqueta be in Brazil's Starting 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $19 9h
Will Tsuyoshi Watanabe be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 10h
Will Tsuyoshi Watanabe be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 10h
Will Shogo Taniguchi be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 10h
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 89¢ $19 11h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Will Nathaniel Brown be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 11h
Will Felix Nmecha be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+41.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +221.3% +190.7% 62% 50% +390.6%
≤30d 10 +367.0% +322.6% 60% 50% +474.4%
≤90d 20 +153.1% +129.0% 35% 30% +141.6%
all 140 +56.1% +41.2% 46% 34% +10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.2% 34% +10.7%
10% +27.7% 29% +0.1%
15% +15.4% 27% -9.5%
20% +4.1% 24% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.76 · official $414.76 (match) · 653 history records