Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33b5…ab07 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$321 (+21%) realized +$339 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$602
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-59.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -55.6% -59.8% 12% 12% -45.5%
≤30d 26 -55.6% -59.8% 12% 12% -45.5%
≤90d 26 -55.6% -59.8% 12% 12% -45.5%
all 26 -55.6% -59.8% 12% 12% -45.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.8% 12% -45.5%
10% ← realistic here -63.6% 12% -50.7%
15% -67.2% 12% -55.5%
20% -70.4% 12% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$54 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$339
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $53 +$148 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $96 −$90 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $105 +$328 +312%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $75 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $61 −$58 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $68 +$182 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $202 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $51 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $21 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $53 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $21 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $53 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $53 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $53 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $53 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $53 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.50 · official $22.50 · 50 history records