Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x33b2…38aa crypto 64 markets active 22h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,506 (+17%) realized +$5,743 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate44%25W / 32L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$493per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$355est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$910
7 days−$1,303
14 days+$715
30 days+$3,551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$5,516
other 38% +$14
politics 16% −$126
tech 3% −$289
crypto 1% −$7
world 1% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -43.1% -48.5% 38% 23% -69.7%
≤30d 23 -16.1% -24.1% 43% 26% +10.3%
≤90d 57 -12.5% -20.9% 44% 26% +15.3%
all 57 -12.5% -20.9% 44% 26% +15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 26% +15.3%
10% -28.4% 19% +4.3%
15% -35.4% 16% -5.8%
20% -41.7% 16% -15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +28% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$110 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$5,313
Realized+$5,743
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses25 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$355
Open positions7
Markets (closed)57 / 64
History coverage88d
Avg bet$493
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3,381 $3,489 +$108 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $886 −$114 (-11%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $300 $307 +$7 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $300 $237 −$63 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $130 −$70 (-35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $169 $100 −$69 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $306 −$300 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $893 −$289 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,132 +$2,135 +100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $4,910 −$126 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,529 +$1,008 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,238 +$2,879 +129%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $2,327 −$43 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $144 −$141 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 14 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +5%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 08 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 08 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $242 +$243 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 05 $89 −$87 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $510 −$118 -23%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 26 $300 −$293 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $327 +$1,061 +324%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $500 +$827 +165%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 19 $64 −$62 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $307 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 21h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 21h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,525 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $922 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,049 43h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,025 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,028 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,313.07 · official $5,324.60 (match) · 170 history records