Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
33 0x33b1…a67b other 54 markets active 4h ago coverage 42d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$11 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$22
sports 37% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +41.1% +27.7% 46% 46% +13.2%
≤30d 32 +32.4% +19.8% 47% 47% -7.9%
≤90d 43 +32.4% +19.8% 51% 51% -5.5%
all 43 +32.4% +19.8% 51% 51% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.8% 51% -5.5%
10% +8.3% 47% -14.5%
15% -2.1% 42% -22.8%
20% -11.7% 37% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 54
History coverage42d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$8 +155%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 +$7 +365%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$4 +118%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +589%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +272%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $19 −$18 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $15 +$3 +18%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 31 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $15 +$12 +76%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will CD Tolima win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $21 +$24 +111%
Will CA Peñarol win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $29 +$7 +24%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 06 $2 +$6 +291%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $2 +$1 +70%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $10 +$3 +27%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $2 +$3 +158%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 28¢ $3 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $3 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 43h
Maximiliano Araújo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $2 43h
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $3 43h
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $3 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 48¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 44¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.13 · official $34.13 · 78 history records