Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33af…5fa9 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$38 (+5%) realized +$50 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$35
other 23% +$7
world 3% −$21
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 52% -5.7%
≤30d 62 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 52% -5.7%
≤90d 62 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 52% -5.7%
all 62 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 52% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 52% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 44% -14.7%
15% -28.1% 39% -23.0%
20% -35.1% 31% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized+$50
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions18
Markets (closed)62 / 80
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox No 60¢ 40¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 71¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $20 −$8 -40%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $3 +$3 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $16 +$31 +194%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $8 +$8 +108%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $65 +$22 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$13 +124%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 +$6 +140%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $32 +$7 +22%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$10 +67%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $27 +$5 +17%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $13 +$9 +68%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$6 +18%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 +$7 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 +$8 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +89%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$6 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 +$7 +238%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7 +$8 +116%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $6 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $2 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $5 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag SELL Geekay Esports 52¢ $12 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Geekay Esports 86¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le SELL G2 Esports 100¢ $6 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 3¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Shifters 60¢ $15 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY G2 Esports 54¢ $3 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 57¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $20 5h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $3 6h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $1 6h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $1 6h
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Twisted Minds (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 47¢ $9 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $47 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL XLG Gaming 1¢ $0 7h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 30¢ $6 8h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 47¢ $8 11h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $7 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.15 · official $125.15 (match) · 148 history records