Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33af…a862 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$5
other 30% −$7
politics 6% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 69% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 15 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 0% -8.6%
all 37 -4.1% -13.2% 57% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.5% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.0% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage454d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $55 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 27 $34 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $49 +$2 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $53 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $74 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $4 $0 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Giorgia Meloni be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 26 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Masters? Apr 13 $12 −$8 -67%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March? Apr 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Apr 04 $12 $0 +1%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -56%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 28 $13 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $25 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $32 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $27 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $20 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $27 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $51 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 128 history records