Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ad…2c7d crypto 1861 markets active 2d ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 18d only
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$114 (+4%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%918W / 992L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day98.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$119
14 days−$130
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 +6.4% -3.7% 41% 41% -25.9%
≤30d 1910 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 48% -14.9%
≤90d 1910 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 48% -14.9%
all 1910 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 48% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 48% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 47% -23.1%
15% -27.1% 43% -30.5%
20% -34.2% 37% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses918 / 992
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1910 / 1861
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1910 Trades
no open positions (278 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 11AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -277%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -868%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$13 +3053%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$5 +1709%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$21 +10109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$16 +4984%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -386%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$7 -1735%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$14 -2123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -416%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$10 -2346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.76 · official $1.76 (match) · 3500 history records