Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ad…a123 sports 220 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$501 (-3%) realized −$501 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%114W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$192est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$8
14 days−$337
30 days−$874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$202
other 6% −$175
crypto 3% −$191
politics 1% −$118
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -35.0% -41.2% 38% 25% -13.0%
≤30d 109 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 45% -17.4%
≤90d 133 -10.6% -19.1% 49% 46% -15.0%
all 220 -11.6% -20.0% 52% 44% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 44% -13.1%
10% -27.7% 36% -21.4%
15% -34.7% 26% -29.0%
20% -41.1% 19% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$51 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses114 / 106
Est. fees paid−$192
Open positions0
Markets (closed)220 / 220
History coverage145d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 220 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 22 $71 +$24 +35%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$14 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $255 −$255 -100%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$15 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$49 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $141 +$63 +45%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$2 -9%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $30 −$10 -32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$19 +123%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $36 +$37 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$23 +45%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 12 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: SCARZ vs KINOTROPE gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Leag Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $154 −$36 -23%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $200 −$1 -0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - Nort Jun 12 $184 −$123 -67%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $83 −$83 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$34 -66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 +$17 +26%
Rainbow Six Siege: Dplus vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC Jun 12 $51 +$36 +71%
Rainbow Six Siege: Titan Esports Club vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League St Jun 12 $40 +$20 +51%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $15 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $41 +$31 +76%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs Four Angry Men (BO3) - CN Leagu Jun 12 $30 +$31 +102%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $81 −$14 -18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 +$23 +75%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 12 $51 +$15 +30%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $30 +$18 +59%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $30 +$26 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $300 +$57 +19%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Sta Jun 11 $101 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: DXA Esports vs Masked Regime (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $86 −$26 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League SELL Falcons Esport 99¢ $95 4m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League BUY Falcons Esport 73¢ $71 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $6 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 41¢ $9 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL SPARTA 49¢ $43 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 47¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 47¢ $41 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $28 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 96¢ $55 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 69¢ $30 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $204 9d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 66¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $151 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 98¢ $205 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 67¢ $141 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $18 9d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $21 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 9d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 9d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) BUY Vitality 49¢ $17 9d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 706 history records