Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33ab…9523 sports 510 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (206 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59,503 (-3%) realized −$59,493 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%506W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$4,342per market
Trades / day206.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8,846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$26,852
other 16% +$16,765
crypto 12% +$263
world 4% +$85
weather 1% +$21
economics 1% +$14
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (206 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 357 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 508 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 1% -8.1%
≤90d 508 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 1% -8.1%
all 508 +4.9% -5.1% 100% 1% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 1% -8.1%
10% -14.2% 1% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.5% 1% -24.9%
20% -30.1% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,832) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$2,538 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.67 per $1 lost it wins $8.67
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$8,846
Realized−$59,493
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses506 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)508 / 510
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$4,342
Trades / day206.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ 100¢ $8,817 $8,821 +$4 (+0%)
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 98¢ 63¢ $39 $25 −$14 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2,538 −$2,538 -100%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $2,538 −$2,538 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World Jun 29 $3,062 +$3 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $267 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner Jun 29 $4,443 +$4 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 28 $1,293 +$1 +0%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $1,168 +$1 +0%
Canada to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 28 $7,996 +$8 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $163 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 28 $340 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs SINQU Rehti (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A Jun 28 $1,620 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $154 $0 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 28 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Subtop De France (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 28 $10,668 +$11 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $232 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $22 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $23 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $63 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $136 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $291 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $5,013 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $6,213 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $121 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $26,172 +$26 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $938 +$1 +0%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $11,957 +$12 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $2 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $15,958 +$16 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $90 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $438 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET Jun 28 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $999 +$1 +0%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $2,713 +$3 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $57,144 +$57 +0%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $26,948 +$27 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $627 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $7 0m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $1 0m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $23 4m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $35 10m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $28 13m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $438 13m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $50 13m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $6 16m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $333 16m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $25 16m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $305 17m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $22 18m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $21 19m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $4,042 19m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $38 19m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $10 19m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $20 20m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $0 20m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $29 20m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $7 20m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $83 20m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $59 21m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $174 21m
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL Nor BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 100¢ $3,061 21m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World BUY ShindeN 100¢ $96 24m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World BUY ShindeN 100¢ $32 34m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World BUY ShindeN 100¢ $16 49m
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World BUY ShindeN 100¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,846.38 · official $8,838.89 (match) · 3500 history records