Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:03:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x33a9…d8c7 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$6
other 29% +$2
politics 25% +$1
sports 7% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 0% -11.3%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage296d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $66 −$6 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $96 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $33 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $38 $0 +1%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 02 $31 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 27 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 27 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 36m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 18h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $11 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $20 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $30 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $30 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $33 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $30 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $14 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $29 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $33 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 15d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $34 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $34 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records