Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x33a8…2a71 sports 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+1%) realized +$210 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate65%95W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$361
7 days+$340
14 days+$340
30 days+$577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$194
other 28% +$369
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.1% -3.1% 75% 75% +31.8%
≤30d 9 -5.0% -14.0% 56% 44% +32.3%
≤90d 20 -0.8% -10.2% 70% 50% +24.9%
all 147 -2.5% -11.8% 65% 53% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 53% -8.4%
10% -20.2% 43% -17.2%
15% -27.9% 33% -25.2%
20% -35.0% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$64 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$210
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses95 / 52
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)147 / 150
History coverage226d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $390 $380 −$10 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $256 $252 −$4 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $652 +$361 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $31 +$12 +40%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $45 +$3 +6%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $229 −$12 -5%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $212 +$267 +126%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Geek Fam ID (BO3) - MPL Indones May 10 $16 +$10 +62%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs PARIVISION (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $15 +$2 +10%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 +$4 +21%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score May 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$6 -61%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: EVOS vs RRQ Hoshi (BO3) - MPL Indonesia Regu May 09 $18 +$8 +41%
Game Handicap: DEWA (-1.5) vs Alter Ego (+1.5) May 09 $6 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 06 $28 +$4 +16%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $115 +$22 +19%
Miami Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Joao Fonseca Mar 21 $100 +$15 +15%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $115 +$17 +15%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 03 $62 +$26 +42%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Mar 03 $47 +$15 +32%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $43 +$4 +9%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winner Mar 03 $26 +$16 +62%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 03 $100 −$74 -74%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Mar 03 $106 −$106 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 02 $123 +$21 +17%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 02 $13 +$11 +88%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Ch Mar 02 $100 −$97 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winne Mar 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Mar 02 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $110 +$16 +15%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $7 +$3 +43%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 28 $45 −$37 -83%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $110 +$49 +45%
Will Dplus Kia win the LCK Cup 2026? Feb 28 $105 +$4 +4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $100 −$99 -99%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Feb 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 28 $136 −$52 -38%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $50 +$22 +43%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $102 +$50 +49%
ATX Open: Yue Yuan vs Dalma Galfi Feb 26 $100 +$104 +104%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Feb 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Feb 25 $39 +$12 +31%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 25 $27 +$12 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 7m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $54 8m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $57 21m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $57 23m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $57 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $57 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $57 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $48 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,013 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $127 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $131 47h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $129 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $129 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $134 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $40 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 74¢ $27 2d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 3d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind SELL ONIC 100¢ $43 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind BUY ONIC 71¢ $31 6d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $258 9d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $48 14d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 94¢ $45 14d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers SELL Knicks 44¢ $217 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 45¢ $229 24d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $475 28d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 28d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 43¢ $212 28d
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 51¢ $10 30d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Geek Fam ID (BO3) - MPL Indones SELL Geek Fam ID 100¢ $26 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.47 · official $679.47 (match) · 388 history records