Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x33a8…e34e sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$990 (+7%) realized +$980 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$482per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$42
14 days−$9
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$140
finance 19% +$80
sports 16% −$31
world 13% +$63
politics 10% +$784
tech 1% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +10.0% -0.5% 78% 44% -8.5%
≤30d 28 -8.0% -16.8% 68% 36% -8.5%
≤90d 29 -5.8% -14.8% 69% 38% -3.7%
all 29 -5.8% -14.8% 69% 38% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 38% -3.7%
10% -22.9% 31% -12.9%
15% -30.4% 17% -21.3%
20% -37.2% 14% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$46 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$801
Realized+$980
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage93d
Avg bet$482
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 92¢ 93¢ $619 $623 +$4 (+1%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 86¢ 89¢ $172 $178 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$42 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,301 +$47 +4%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1,681 +$38 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $26 +$7 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 +$65 +32%
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? Jun 14 $223 +$2 +1%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $500 +$37 +7%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $48 −$42 -88%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $578 +$53 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1,372 +$27 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,661 +$78 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 31 $2,703 +$37 +1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $160 +$25 +16%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $236 −$31 -13%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 23 $152 −$110 -73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $271 +$28 +10%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $11 −$9 -84%
Spread: Thunder (-7.5) May 19 $9 +$2 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $7 +$2 +36%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $1,371 +$777 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $58 21m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,201 3h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 4h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 75¢ $101 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $26 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 3d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $225 3d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes $0 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 42¢ $1 6d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $173 7d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 84¢ $69 7d
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 86¢ $172 7d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 7d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to Nasdaq-100 in 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $294 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $154 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL No $6 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY No 43¢ $48 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 99¢ $53 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 13d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 91¢ $1 13d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 91¢ $72 13d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 91¢ $9 13d
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 91¢ $73 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.76 · official $800.76 (match) · 97 history records