Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
33 0x33a5…5881 other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$21
politics 21% −$4
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
sports 3% +$14
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 8% -9.6%
all 104 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 8% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 93
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage91d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $382 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $242 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 01 $72 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $27 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $306 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 17 $328 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $302 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $342 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $361 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $176 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $185 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $173 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 05 $177 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $355 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $355 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $175 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $283 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $177 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $179 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $350 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $187 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 2h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 22h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 26h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 8d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $27 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.01 · official $122.01 (match) · 307 history records