Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x33a2…9be1
crypto · 347 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$244 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$244 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses165 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)347 / 347
History coverage62d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 0 History 347 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Wolf" in May? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? No 94¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hawk" in May? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum above 2,320 on May 2, 1AM ET? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Panther" in May? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -95%
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$5 -56%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -26%
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -44%
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -55%
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Jun 04 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$4 +88%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +76%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 +$1 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $2 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Trump say "Kangaroo" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Wolf" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Pig" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Panther" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Hippo" or "Hippopotamus" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Mosquito" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Hawk" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET May 27 $9 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 27 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $2 $0 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $1 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 23 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$225
other 2% −$15
sports 0% +$3
politics 0% −$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $15 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 7d
JD Vance out as VP by June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 9d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Will Ronaldo play with Ronaldo Jr. before the end of 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 9d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 9d
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.1% +7.7% 60% 60% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -40.2% -45.9% 28% 23% -27.7%
≤90d 347 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 41% -16.4%
all 347 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 41% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 41% -16.4%
10% -24.4% 35% -24.4%
15% -31.7% 25% -31.7%
20% -38.4% 20% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1288 history records