Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x339e…be97 crypto 668 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,307 (-2%) realized −$1,309 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate80%533W / 132L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$16
14 days−$674
30 days−$588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$225
other 21% −$782
sports 10% +$244
world 4% −$135
politics 1% −$166
finance 1% −$42
tech 1% −$56
culture 0% −$129
weather 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 94% 6% -8.3%
≤30d 108 -4.1% -13.2% 82% 11% -13.5%
≤90d 291 -2.2% -11.5% 86% 11% -10.9%
all 665 -3.6% -12.8% 80% 22% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 22% -11.5%
10% -21.1% 12% -20.0%
15% -28.8% 6% -27.7%
20% -35.7% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized−$1,309
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses533 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)665 / 668
History coverage173d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 665 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $110 +$3 +2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $200 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $220 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $427 −$426 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $250 +$19 +7%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$50 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$100 -50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$88 -88%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $301 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $22 −$19 -87%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $250 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $210 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $87 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 14h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $100 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $100 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 39h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $10 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 92¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $100 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $100 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $80 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $10 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $110 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $200 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $202 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $200 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $200 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $20 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.23 · official $219.23 (match) · 1555 history records