Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:29:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x339c…8084 crypto 59 markets active 6d ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$91 (-28%) realized −$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%28W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$85
other 9% $0
sports 2% −$7
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 56 -15.7% -23.8% 50% 39% -38.0%
all 56 -15.7% -23.8% 50% 39% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 39% -38.0%
10% -31.1% 36% -43.9%
15% -37.7% 25% -49.3%
20% -43.8% 16% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses28 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage56d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Apr 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 20 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$2 -22%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Apr 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 18 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 17 $1 +$2 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 16 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 16 $11 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 16 $25 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 16 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 16 $75 −$68 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 16 $3 +$9 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Jack Della Maddalena 53¢ $5 58d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 79¢ $2 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $14 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.10 · official $30.06 (match) · 147 history records