Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3396…2448 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$10
other 24% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.3% -44.2% 40% 40% -13.8%
≤30d 5 -38.3% -44.2% 40% 40% -13.8%
≤90d 5 -38.3% -44.2% 40% 40% -13.8%
all 5 -38.3% -44.2% 40% 40% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 40% -13.8%
10% -49.6% 40% -22.0%
15% -54.4% 20% -29.5%
20% -58.9% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$23 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)5 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England leading at halftime? No 34¢ 34¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 Corners Under 25¢ 30¢ $25 $30 +$4 (+18%)
Panama vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Corners Under 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Argentina to win the second half? No 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 6.5 Corners Over 27¢ 27¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Under 24¢ 23¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Under 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $71 +$59 +82%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $55 −$55 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $12 +$3 +26%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $3 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 27¢ $28 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 34¢ $35 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 29¢ $30 1h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY No 29¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 25¢ $26 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 24¢ $25 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $129 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 0¢ $0 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $55 7h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $71 8h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 0¢ $0 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $1 11h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $11 11h
Dailon Livramento: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $14 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.78 · official $172.80 (match) · 16 history records