Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3392…3bb2 other 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$22
14 days−$33
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$22
other 27% −$30
sports 19% −$12
crypto 9% −$9
world 8% −$5
finance 2% +$9
culture 2% −$3
tech 2% −$5
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.9% -10.4% 5% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 62 -0.8% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 117 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 140 -0.5% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 124
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage106d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $178 −$2 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $337 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $495 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $436 −$4 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $120 −$2 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $295 −$3 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 14 $44 $0 -1%
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $48 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $149 −$2 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Portugal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $157 −$3 -2%
Will a player representing Brazil be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $59 −$1 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $56 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $238 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $168 −$2 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $48 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $76 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 04 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $26 −$1 -4%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 02 $115 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $241 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 29 $86 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $117 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $55 53m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $67 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $68 8h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 9h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 16h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $46 16h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $46 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $48 22h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $48 29h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $57 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $30 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $28 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 36h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 44h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $49 45h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $38 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $44 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Austria reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $46 3d
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $46 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.29 · official $55.29 (match) · 529 history records