Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
33 0x3390…b960 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$364 (+0%) realized +$360 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate21%29W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$1,302per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$13
30 days−$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$351
politics 33% −$71
sports 13% +$27
economics 2% −$4
world 1% +$38
crypto 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -6.2% -15.1% 3% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 89 -4.6% -13.7% 2% 0% -9.8%
all 139 +1.8% -7.9% 21% 15% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 15% -9.4%
10% -16.7% 15% -18.0%
15% -24.8% 13% -26.0%
20% -32.2% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,908) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$10 · ×4.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses29 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,302
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $387 $391 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $587 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $305 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 24 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,120 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $301 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,517 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,799 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,195 −$3 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,080 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,133 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $810 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $479 $0 +0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $990 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5,736 −$6 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $3,525 −$5 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,408 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,383 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,896 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,589 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 19 $726 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,332 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $4,032 −$4 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,331 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $3,474 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $586 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $587 3h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $474 4h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $474 8h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $305 26h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $653 29h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $305 29h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $653 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $529 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $530 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $669 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $670 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $301 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $301 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $683 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $684 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $764 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $766 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $786 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $787 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $387 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 15d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,068 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.86 · official $390.86 (match) · 474 history records