Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:28:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x338d…6fd4 crypto 329 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$261 (-1%) realized −$261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%147W / 181L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$451
7 days+$451
14 days−$371
30 days−$617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,447
sports 18% +$668
crypto 17% +$62
politics 1% +$89
world 0% −$14
economics 0% −$9
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.2% -13.3% 57% 53% -6.7%
≤30d 315 -10.2% -18.8% 45% 37% -12.3%
≤90d 328 -10.1% -18.7% 45% 37% -12.5%
all 328 -10.1% -18.7% 45% 37% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 37% -12.5%
10% -26.4% 28% -20.9%
15% -33.5% 24% -28.5%
20% -40.1% 19% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$37 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses147 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)328 / 329
History coverage54d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 328 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $338 −$180 -53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3,345 −$3,222 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$18 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$30 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$58 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $17 +$9 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,217 +$1,003 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,550 +$1,269 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,981 +$571 +29%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,883 +$95 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,040 +$858 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $1,012 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 25¢ $159 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $158 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $338 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $123 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $3,345 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $32 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 16h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $68 16h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $141 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $155.50 · 835 history records