trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | No | 53¢ | 52¢ | $265 | $262 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $264 | $262 | −$2 (-1%) |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $186 | $185 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $177 | $177 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $170 | $169 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $168 | $167 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $97 | $97 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $93 | $92 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $85 | $84 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $186 | $0 | −$186 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $86 | +$14 | +16% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $42 | +$58 | +138% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $94 | +$6 | +7% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$11 | +11% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 11 | $74 | −$10 | -14% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 08 | $63 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 08 | $84 | −$3 | -3% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | May 11 | $370 | +$530 | +143% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | May 11 | $368 | +$1,232 | +335% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Apr 04 | $221 | −$200 | -90% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Apr 04 | $494 | −$320 | -65% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Apr 04 | $195 | +$105 | +54% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 15 | $186 | −$186 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $300 | +$46 | +15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | Feb 28 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $1,859 | −$1,232 | -66% |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Feb 28 | $953 | +$31 | +3% |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Oct 23 | $349 | +$606 | +174% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 04 | $162 | +$16 | +10% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 17 | $20 | +$11 | +57% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +21.9% | +10.3% | 57% | 43% | +3.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +21.9% | +10.3% | 57% | 43% | +3.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +44.2% | +30.4% | 58% | 50% | +49.2% |
| all | 20 | +31.2% | +18.7% | 65% | 45% | +1.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +18.7% | 45% | +1.1% |
| 10% | +7.4% | 30% | -8.6% |
| 15% | -3.0% | 30% | -17.4% |
| 20% | -12.5% | 30% | -25.5% |