Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

33
0x3389…f11f
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$21 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$21 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage43d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 4 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 54¢ 22¢ $46 $19 −$27 (-58%)
Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 Yes 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5 No 42¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+138%)
Arda Güler: 2+ shots Yes 79¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 Yes 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5 May 01 $3 +$4 +136%
Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 May 01 $5 +$5 +91%
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 May 01 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$36
sports 38% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 32m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 40m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 40m
Arda Güler: 2+ shots BUY Yes 79¢ $5 53m
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 60¢ $20 43d
Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 20.5 BUY No 42¢ $3 43d
Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 43d
Alperen Sengün: Assists O/U 5.5 BUY Yes 59¢ $10 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 50% -60.1%
all 4 +7.6% -2.6% 50% 50% -60.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 50% -60.1%
10% -12.0% 50% -63.9%
15% -20.5% 50% -67.4%
20% -28.3% 50% -70.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.30 · official $42.30 (match) · 11 history records