Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3389…5bcf sports 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,954 (-5%) realized −$8,954 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%76W / 53L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,404per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$875est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,006
7 days−$18,799
14 days−$4,437
30 days−$7,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$11,205
sports 46% −$3,128
crypto 3% −$488
world 1% +$2,812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +4.5% -5.4% 41% 41% -43.5%
≤30d 98 +6.4% -3.7% 58% 55% -12.1%
≤90d 129 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 55% -13.7%
all 129 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 55% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 55% -13.7%
10% -17.6% 40% -22.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 33% -29.5%
20% -32.9% 21% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,798) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$762 vs −$1,319 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,954
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses76 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$875
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage41d
Avg bet$1,404
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,484 −$2,300 -93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,414 −$4,414 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,966 −$2,966 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,574 +$1,454 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,187 −$1,187 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,680 −$4,593 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,102 −$1,102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,328 −$2,233 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,463 −$2,406 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,018 −$2,995 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,511 +$2,812 +112%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,091 +$4,047 +194%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $622 +$1,120 +180%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $399 +$1,295 +324%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,970 −$3,927 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $174 +$23 +13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,642 −$2,047 -78%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $532 +$1,396 +262%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,910 +$2,478 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $481 +$619 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $607 −$598 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,159 +$4,231 +134%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $577 +$3,435 +596%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $206 −$204 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,903 +$5,525 +113%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $167 +$18 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $739 +$408 +55%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $549 −$544 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,924 −$1,885 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $203 −$198 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $79 +$70 +89%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 10 $211 +$36 +17%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $452 +$60 +13%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $412 −$403 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1,488 +$598 +40%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,183 +$406 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $117 +$17 +14%
LoL: GOAL vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $384 +$150 +39%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs MAGAZA (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 08 $312 +$58 +18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $2,423 +$1,158 +48%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $178 +$26 +14%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 08 $163 −$159 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 08 $4,159 +$2,091 +50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $475 +$29 +6%
LoL: RED Canids vs Leviatan Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 08 $169 +$27 +16%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $354 +$134 +38%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $330 +$262 +79%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $202 +$69 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 2¢ $152 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 3¢ $33 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $281 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $23 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $456 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $296 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $2 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $4 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $18 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $18 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $7 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $42 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $0 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $4 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $45 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $91 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $11 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $7 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $1 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $9 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $9 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $2 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $11 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $11 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $22 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $23 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $18 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 967 history records