Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x3388…61d7 other 1276 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,368 (+4%) realized +$21,437 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%705W / 542L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$3,300est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$18,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,400
7 days+$2,840
14 days+$1,029
30 days+$7,370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$21,072
sports 47% −$5,042
world 1% +$2,600
crypto 0% +$868
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +21.5% +9.9% 59% 56% -6.7%
≤30d 349 +9.4% -1.0% 56% 55% -6.1%
≤90d 1247 +5.7% -4.3% 57% 55% -6.1%
all 1247 +5.7% -4.3% 57% 55% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 55% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 53% -15.1%
15% -21.8% 47% -23.3%
20% -29.5% 38% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$540) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$300 vs −$356 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$18,072
Realized+$21,437
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses705 / 542
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,300
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1247 / 1276
History coverage72d
Avg bet$426
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $1,848 $1,860 +$12 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $1,392 $1,764 +$372 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $1,704 $1,716 +$12 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $1,176 $1,212 +$36 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $900 $825 −$75 (-8%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $656 $782 +$126 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $697 $748 +$51 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 92¢ $520 $740 +$220 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $715 $738 +$23 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $496 $732 +$236 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $736 $710 −$26 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $696 $676 −$20 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $611 $623 +$12 (+2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $680 $572 −$108 (-16%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 71¢ $536 $568 +$32 (+6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $632 $556 −$76 (-12%)
Colombia leading at halftime? No 48¢ 50¢ $489 $504 +$15 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 54¢ $296 $428 +$132 (+45%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $328 $420 +$92 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $368 $324 −$44 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $240 $300 +$60 (+25%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 26¢ $297 $271 −$26 (-9%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $256 $244 −$12 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $472 $244 −$228 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $264 $220 −$44 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 282 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,328 +$272 +20%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $736 +$258 +35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,170 +$1,230 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,176 +$1,224 +104%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $553 +$764 +138%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,704 +$696 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $445 +$522 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,050 −$1,032 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,002 −$1,992 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $659 +$165 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,538 −$138 -5%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $768 −$768 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $544 +$410 +75%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $888 +$1,512 +170%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $735 −$720 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $600 −$600 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $800 +$800 +100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $792 −$792 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,152 +$1,248 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,955 +$445 +23%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $960 +$640 +67%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,776 +$624 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $912 +$1,488 +163%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $433 +$400 +92%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,304 +$96 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $253 −$253 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 15 $519 −$519 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $505 +$297 +59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,394 +$6 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 +$2,178 +982%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $409 +$1,191 +291%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,608 +$792 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $494 +$557 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $576 +$1,824 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,608 −$808 -50%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,360 −$1,360 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,861 −$1,848 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,770 −$1,770 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,932 +$468 +24%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $520 +$114 +22%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $974 −$965 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,232 +$368 +30%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $622 +$242 +39%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,752 −$1,752 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,790 +$610 +34%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,256 +$344 +27%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,024 +$576 +56%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,218 −$1,200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 69¢ $68 56m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $1,719 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $68 1h
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $421 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $860 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,194 2h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $1,328 4h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,170 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $1,050 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $2,002 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $12 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $4 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $22 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $68 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $198 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $91 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $24 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $26 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $510 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $466 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 71¢ $728 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $47 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $227 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $36 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $2 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $2 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $71 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $17 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $18 17h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $8 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,071.56 · official $18,103.49 (match) · 3251 history records