Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
33 0x3387…b6ae other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$14
politics 26% −$1
crypto 24% −$2
world 5% −$1
sports 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 27% -13.4%
≤90d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 44% 22% -13.3%
all 19 -5.6% -14.5% 42% 21% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 21% -13.8%
10% -22.7% 5% -22.1%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage148d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 84¢ 83¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 82¢ 81¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 27 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $105 −$10 -10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $18 −$2 -14%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $6 −$1 -23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 -27%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 30 $1 $0 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 30 $1 $0 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $3 +$1 +18%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 06 $1 $0 +4%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? May 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Feb 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $9 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $11 1h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House BUY No 82¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 84¢ $64 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 82¢ $70 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $74 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $74 11d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 82¢ $10 11d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 82¢ $61 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $95 11d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 81¢ $1 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 22d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $105 22d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $24 22d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 22d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $1 22d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $1 22d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $1 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 28d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 28d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 68¢ $1 28d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $1 52d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $1 52d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $1 52d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $1 52d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $1 52d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 85¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.66 · official $137.67 (match) · 71 history records