Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:17:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3387…c3f7 world 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$702 (-6%) realized +$556 · open −$1,258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$580
14 days+$698
30 days+$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$5
other 18% −$476
culture 11% −$102
tech 7% +$96
politics 4% −$65
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 35% +5.1%
≤30d 28 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 39% +4.8%
≤90d 28 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 39% +4.8%
all 28 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 39% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 39% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 25% -5.2%
15% -32.7% 25% -14.4%
20% -39.3% 25% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$48 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$4,604
Realized+$556
Unrealized−$1,258
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Open positions35
Markets (closed)28 / 63
History coverage9d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $518 $570 +$52 (+10%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $390 $459 +$69 (+18%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $499 $415 −$84 (-17%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $394 $394 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 49¢ 66¢ $225 $300 +$75 (+33%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 40¢ 45¢ $245 $276 +$31 (+12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $238 $273 +$35 (+15%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? No 88¢ 100¢ $234 $267 +$32 (+14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $231 $216 −$16 (-7%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? No 53¢ 96¢ $100 $181 +$81 (+81%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $127 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $769 $121 −$648 (-84%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 78¢ 90¢ $97 $112 +$15 (+16%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $125 $104 −$22 (-17%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 34¢ 6¢ $542 $103 −$439 (-81%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 68¢ $52 $69 +$17 (+32%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 58¢ 34¢ $106 $63 −$43 (-41%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $60 $54 −$7 (-11%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 26¢ 24¢ $58 $51 −$7 (-11%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Yes 69¢ 55¢ $64 $51 −$13 (-21%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Yes 65¢ 44¢ $65 $45 −$21 (-32%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $156 $37 −$119 (-76%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $217 $33 −$183 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $28 +$61 +221%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $489 −$22 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $67 +$13 +20%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $700 −$285 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $471 +$26 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $398 +$27 +7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $124 −$121 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $888 +$1,062 +120%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $135 −$134 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $22 −$15 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$10 +168%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $7 $0 -7%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $150 +$31 +20%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $35 −$31 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $131 +$66 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $71 +$66 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $595 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $54 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $13 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $15 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $1 5h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $17 5h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 93¢ $51 5h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL Yes 7¢ $0 6h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7h
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 86¢ $77 15h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 32¢ $51 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $66 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 17h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $13 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $8 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $7 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $14 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $22 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 17h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,603.88 · official $4,603.98 (match) · 552 history records