Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3386…8e59 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$364now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$38
other 41% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 50% -1.6%
≤30d 2 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 50% -1.6%
≤90d 2 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 50% -1.6%
all 2 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 50% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 50% -1.6%
10% -48.5% 50% -11.0%
15% -53.5% 0% -19.6%
20% -58.1% 0% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$27 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$364
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? No 71¢ 70¢ $204 $202 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 54¢ 52¢ $67 $64 −$3 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 53¢ 50¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-5%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 93¢ 94¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 33¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $170 +$44 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $206 37m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 53¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 54¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 53¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 54¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $27 7h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $37 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $2 9h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $170 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $364.02 · official $364.02 (match) · 11 history records