Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
33 0x3386…c7d5 crypto 304 markets active 14h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-8%) realized −$93 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%136W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$140
14 days−$121
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$45
sports 23% −$22
world 4% −$23
other 2% −$14
politics 1% −$6
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -55.8% -60.0% 24% 17% -66.2%
≤30d 90 -31.9% -38.4% 34% 28% -28.8%
≤90d 100 -26.3% -33.3% 39% 33% -21.7%
all 298 -18.4% -26.1% 46% 38% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 38% -18.1%
10% -33.2% 28% -25.9%
15% -39.7% 20% -33.1%
20% -45.6% 13% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses136 / 162
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)298 / 304
History coverage149d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North Americ Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 14h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 14h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 24¢ $1 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 21¢ $1 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 18¢ $1 44h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 45h
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof BUY Festina Lente 61¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.40 · official $8.40 (match) · 967 history records