Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x3385…194d other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 24% +$1
tech 22% +$1
sports 16% +$2
world 16% +$1
other 16% +$1
politics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 16 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$649
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage82d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $289 $289 −$0 (-0%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $255 $255 −$0 (-0%)
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $648 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? Jun 17 $334 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $368 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? Jun 11 $258 $0 +0%
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $133 $0 +0%
Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02? Jun 04 $220 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $154 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $216 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $6.00? May 25 $190 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $5.50? May 25 $222 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $3.50? May 25 $234 $0 +0%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 18 $645 +$1 +0%
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April? May 04 $152 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $315 end of April? May 04 $493 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? Apr 15 $644 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $255 1h
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $289 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $648 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $334 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $368 16d
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May? BUY No 100¢ $258 24d
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VII? BUY No 100¢ $133 24d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 32d
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 32d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $216 32d
Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02? BUY No 100¢ $220 32d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $5.50? BUY No 100¢ $207 37d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $5.50? BUY No 99¢ $15 37d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $6.00? BUY No 100¢ $190 37d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $3.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $219 37d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $3.50? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 37d
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $645 46d
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $152 61d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $315 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $493 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $644 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.32 · official $649.32 (match) · 37 history records