Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3384…7ec6 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate24%18W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
sports 20% −$5
other 19% −$6
politics 11% $0
economics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 +77.0% +60.1% 27% 8% -9.7%
≤90d 67 +29.8% +17.4% 24% 4% -9.6%
all 74 +24.3% +12.4% 24% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 4% -9.9%
10% +1.7% 3% -18.5%
15% -8.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -17.1% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses18 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage536d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $122 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $74 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $115 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $65 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $34 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $35 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $8 $0 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $22 +$3 +14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $5 $0 -4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $38 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $72 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $11 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $21 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $20 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $3 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $10 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $12 42h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $11 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $37 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $34 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $12 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $0 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $11 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 58¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.00 (match) · 293 history records