Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:09:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x3383…19f0 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,252 (+7%) realized +$1,452 · open −$200
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%30W / 17L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$564
7 days+$1,483
14 days−$566
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$2,139
other 19% +$1,004
finance 16% −$1,025
economics 13% +$1,808
crypto 10% +$54
sports 9% +$1,330
politics 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.4% +14.3% 88% 88% +25.5%
≤30d 12 +30.3% +17.9% 83% 83% -2.2%
≤90d 13 +28.1% +15.9% 85% 77% -2.6%
all 47 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 57% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 57% -2.4%
10% -17.7% 43% -11.8%
15% -25.6% 34% -20.3%
20% -32.9% 28% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$292 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,452
Unrealized−$200
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses30 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage153d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $406 +$564 +139%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $607 +$120 +20%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $506 +$328 +65%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $503 +$100 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$18 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $974 +$116 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $707 +$266 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2,290 −$2,290 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$241 +48%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,400 +$353 +25%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $501 +$902 +180%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $500 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 08 $429 −$429 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 08 $301 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 08 $1,000 −$948 -95%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 06 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 06 $45 +$55 +122%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $1,500 −$340 -23%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $75 +$108 +144%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $500 +$816 +163%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 14, 2026? Feb 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 16 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Feb 15 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Feb 15 $55 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 14 $100 +$30 +30%
Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Feb 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Feb 14 $100 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 14 $70 +$12 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 14 $22 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 14 $109 +$31 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 14 $19 +$22 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 13 $100 +$42 +42%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $150 +$103 +69%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 04 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $2,300 +$1,808 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 9h
England leading at halftime? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 66¢ $400 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 73¢ $728 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $503 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $506 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $120 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,090 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $974 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $973 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $707 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $20 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1,000 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $550 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $100 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $100 14d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $500 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1,753 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1,400 29d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 35¢ $501 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $502 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? BUY Yes 94¢ $429 112d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? SELL No 81¢ $301 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 117 history records