Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:10:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3382…a6e4 weather 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$1
weather 26% −$13
world 22% −$5
culture 6% −$3
other 4% −$10
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 11 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤90d 15 -10.9% -19.4% 7% 0% -11.3%
all 31 -2.6% -11.9% 16% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -10.7%
10% -20.3% 3% -19.2%
15% -28.0% 3% -27.0%
20% -35.1% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage266d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $57 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 23 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 23 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $45 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 31 $322 +$3 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Mar 30 $130 −$2 -2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 30 $404 −$5 -1%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 19 $16 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22? Mar 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Mar 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 22? Mar 19 $15 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on Marc Mar 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 22? Mar 19 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22? Mar 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 22? Mar 19 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 19 $130 −$2 -1%
US recession by end of 2026? Mar 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 22? Mar 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the Mar 19 $110 −$3 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 19 $114 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $29 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Sep 30 $8 +$8 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 47¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 55¢ $53 26m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 57¢ $57 28m
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? SELL Yes 40¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? SELL Yes 65¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 67¢ $67 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? SELL No 56¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 57¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 67¢ $67 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 42¢ $42 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 45¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 45¢ $22 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 23? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 27d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 84d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 84d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 65¢ $325 84d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 64¢ $192 84d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 65¢ $130 84d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 64¢ $128 85d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 85d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 65¢ $77 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records