Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x337a…8f18 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+4%) realized +$32 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$42
crypto 9% +$43
sports 5% +$34
world 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 50% -5.6%
≤30d 18 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 50% -5.6%
≤90d 18 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 50% -5.6%
all 18 -5.4% -14.4% 56% 50% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 50% -5.6%
10% -22.6% 50% -14.6%
15% -30.1% 50% -22.9%
20% -37.0% 33% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$18 +59%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 +$5 +89%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 −$80 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$66 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $14 +$7 +49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $81 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 6¢ $5 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $20 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $104 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $22 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $14 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $22 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.18 · official $78.18 (match) · 34 history records