Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
33 0x3379…f44a crypto 720 markets active 1h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$469 (+1%) realized +$381 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate89%643W / 77L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$443
other 4% +$22
world 3% +$63
weather 3% −$151
sports 3% +$24
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% −$24
economics 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.8% -16.6% 50% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 18 +1.7% -8.0% 72% 22% -7.2%
≤90d 245 -0.6% -10.1% 82% 21% -9.2%
all 720 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 15% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 15% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 7% -17.5%
15% -25.4% 4% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$28 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses643 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)720 / 720
History coverage562d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 720 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? No 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -29%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 9? Jun 09 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET Jun 08 $13 −$1 -9%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET Jun 07 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET Jun 06 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET Jun 06 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings? May 20 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10PM ET May 19 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4PM ET May 18 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10AM ET May 18 $13 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7PM ET May 15 $27 −$8 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4PM ET May 15 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10AM ET May 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7PM ET May 12 $6 −$4 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11AM ET May 11 $9 +$10 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12AM ET May 11 $12 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10PM ET May 11 $9 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9AM ET May 10 $6 +$5 +82%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET May 10 $8 +$7 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9PM ET May 10 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8PM ET May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7PM ET May 09 $4 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3PM ET May 08 $4 +$6 +129%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2PM ET May 08 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1PM ET May 08 $9 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5PM ET May 07 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET May 07 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1PM ET May 07 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9AM ET May 07 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2AM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11PM ET May 05 $6 +$7 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 2? May 02 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10AM ET May 02 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1PM ET May 01 $3 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12PM ET May 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9PM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on April 23? Apr 23 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 23? Apr 23 $19 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 1h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $35 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $13 6d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 90¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $7 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $19 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 97¢ $39 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? BUY Up 93¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1820 history records