Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3379…7cb3 crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized −$20 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%52W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$11
world 26% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.9% -26.6% 38% 31% -10.1%
≤30d 112 -12.5% -20.8% 46% 36% -12.2%
≤90d 112 -12.5% -20.8% 46% 36% -12.2%
all 112 -12.5% -20.8% 46% 36% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 36% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 29% -20.6%
15% -35.3% 20% -28.3%
20% -41.6% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12.73438845997027% → late -12.169141880222165% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses52 / 60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage23d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $62 +$8 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$4 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +36%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 24 $15 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 24 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 24 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 24 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 24 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 24 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 24 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 24 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 24 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 24 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 24 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 24 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 24 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 24 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 24 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 24 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 24 $4 +$7 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 24 $6 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 24 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $17 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 24m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 58m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 67¢ $9 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 40¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 33¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 44¢ $4 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 32¢ $3 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.86 · official $15.86 (match) · 504 history records