Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:33:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3375…5b60 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
other 34% +$1
politics 6% $0
culture 3% +$13
crypto 3% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -0.6% -10.0% 33% 0% -9.8%
all 35 +1.6% -8.0% 54% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 3% -8.3%
10% -16.8% 3% -17.1%
15% -24.9% 3% -25.1%
20% -32.2% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.01 per $1 lost it wins $4.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage479d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $34 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $71 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $22 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $42 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Golden Knights win the 2025 Preident's Trophy? Apr 03 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Apr 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will PRO hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $32 +$3 +8%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $1 $0 -22%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $31 $0 +0%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will "I Am Ready, Warden" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Mar 21 $19 +$13 +72%
Will "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat" win Best Documentary Feature Film a Mar 02 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $33 29h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $5 34h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $29 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $33 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $25 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $14 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $38 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $32 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $21 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $21 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $39 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $41 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.59 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records