Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3375…ade1 crypto 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+11%) realized +$198 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%33W / 19L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day53.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$67
sports 9% +$87
other 4% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -0.0% -9.6% 63% 44% -3.5%
≤30d 52 -0.0% -9.6% 63% 44% -3.5%
≤90d 52 -0.0% -9.6% 63% 44% -3.5%
all 52 -0.0% -9.6% 63% 44% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 44% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 29% -12.7%
15% -26.1% 15% -21.2%
20% -33.4% 12% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses33 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $43 −$20 -48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $57 −$2 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $211 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$32 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $56 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$14 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$13 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$13 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $134 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $36 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $207 +$71 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 44h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $23 44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 73¢ $5 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $50 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 37¢ $53 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $94 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.61 · official $1.61 (match) · 250 history records