Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3374…642b other 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$216 (-3%) realized −$248 · open +$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%68W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$93
14 days−$352
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$913
sports 22% +$594
tech 22% +$27
world 3% +$101
crypto 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.4% -25.3% 38% 25% +6.5%
≤30d 27 -4.7% -13.8% 44% 41% -25.6%
≤90d 107 -55.1% -59.4% 21% 17% -36.9%
all 191 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 27% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 27% -12.2%
10% -18.0% 25% -20.6%
15% -25.9% 25% -28.3%
20% -33.2% 22% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$248
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses68 / 123
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage210d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 16¢ 34¢ $29 $61 +$32 (+109%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 −$53 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$106 +105%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$143 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$55 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 +$29 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $447 −$445 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$63 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$33 +41%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1 +$2 +216%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $108 +$92 +85%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $4 +$5 +124%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $5 +$3 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $4 +$7 +170%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $2 −$1 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $1 −$1 -56%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner May 24 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 21 $12 +$3 +28%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $7 −$1 -14%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 21 $6 +$2 +37%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 May 18 $31 −$1 -3%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 2? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season May 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 18 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-01-06? May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? May 18 $28 −$14 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? May 18 $16 −$12 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 16¢ $30 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $16 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $54 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $101 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $42 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $57 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 39¢ $39 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $77 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 61¢ $48 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $447 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $58 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $2 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 9d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 31¢ $1 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 21d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 17¢ $1 21d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 44¢ $4 24d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 65¢ $5 24d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 24¢ $1 26d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA 76¢ $7 26d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA 33¢ $3 26d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Vitality 36¢ $2 27d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL HANJIN BRION 7¢ $0 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.72 · official $57.09 · 570 history records