Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3373…3716 world 435 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$314 (-2%) realized −$142 · open −$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate51%228W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day118.8pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$218
14 days−$106
30 days−$217
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$120
politics 20% +$226
other 10% −$116
sports 10% −$44
crypto 2% +$70
tech 2% −$23
finance 1% −$11
culture 0% −$12
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +105.9% +86.3% 41% 22% -11.5%
≤30d 447 +44.3% +30.6% 51% 21% -9.4%
≤90d 447 +44.3% +30.6% 51% 21% -9.4%
all 447 +44.3% +30.6% 51% 21% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.6% 21% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here +18.1% 14% -18.1%
15% +6.7% 10% -26.0%
20% -3.8% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$1,204
Realized−$142
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses228 / 219
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions45
Markets (closed)447 / 435
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day118.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $479 $551 +$72 (+15%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 57¢ 37¢ $357 $233 −$124 (-35%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $186 $182 −$4 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 59¢ 62¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 44¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump Airport become law this year? Yes 48¢ 6¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 79¢ 85¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Haiti elections delayed again? No 54¢ 31¢ $19 $11 −$8 (-43%)
Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? No 90¢ 76¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 58¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Will Maluma perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 86¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 87¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Rotisserie Chicken Act becomes law by June 30? Yes 41¢ 10¢ $22 $5 −$17 (-77%)
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 51¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? Yes 67¢ 39¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 80¢ 52¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 22¢ 9¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-58%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 35¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+107%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 16 $0 −$2 -2635%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" at The Villages on May Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$14 -118%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -595%
CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +270%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 12? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 16 $0 +$3 +1543%
Sporting Kansas City vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +659%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 16 $0 −$2 -5189%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $0 −$17 -5216%
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at ma Jun 16 $4 −$3 -77%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? Jun 16 $21 −$39 -189%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -54%
Spread: Al Hilal Saudi Club (-1.5) Jun 16 $0 −$7 -10956%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? Jun 16 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $0 −$9 -13095%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $0 −$13 -7292%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $11 −$18 -168%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -732%
Carrarese Calcio vs. Cesena FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $0 −$3 -1506%
Will SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -106%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $0 +$2 +2760%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $0 −$2 -1469%
Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-04-30? Jun 16 $0 $0 +189%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $0 −$2 -1855%
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -718%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-30? Jun 16 $0 −$7 -3021%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $0 +$1 +3230%
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $0 +$3 +3430%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Jun 16 $0 −$2 -2290%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-12? Jun 16 $0 −$3 -21885%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-03? Jun 16 $3 −$14 -524%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 16 $0 −$8 -2188%
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be at least $500M at market clos Jun 16 $0 +$1 +902%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$6 -297%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $0 −$3 -2527%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +123%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-30? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Jun 16 $0 −$1 -2256%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-05-01? Jun 16 $0 $0 +564%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $0 +$4 +9238%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +935%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 31¢ $6 36m
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 32¢ $2 37m
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 33¢ $2 37m
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 15¢ $4 40m
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 16¢ $5 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $14 44m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 63¢ $4 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 64¢ $6 1h
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
Haiti elections delayed again? SELL No 35¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 55¢ $11 1h
Will 4+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 67¢ $12 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 56¢ $2 1h
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 36¢ $12 1h
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 18¢ $11 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $11 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 58¢ $11 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 55¢ $9 2h
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 2h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 71¢ $12 2h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $15 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.40 · official $1,202.18 (match) · 3500 history records