Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
33 0x3371…75ac weather 332 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$128 (+1%) realized +$118 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate83%265W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$97
14 days−$29
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$130
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +3.3% -6.5% 95% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 293 +0.9% -8.7% 88% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 321 -2.4% -11.7% 83% 2% -8.8%
all 321 -2.4% -11.7% 83% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 2% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 2% -17.6%
15% -27.9% 2% -25.5%
20% -34.9% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses265 / 56
Open positions11
Markets (closed)321 / 332
History coverage44d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 24? No 95¢ 100¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 24? No 95¢ 99¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? No 95¢ 98¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? No 95¢ 95¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? No 95¢ 93¢ $62 $60 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 25? No 95¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 24? No 95¢ 99¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? No 95¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 24? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 25? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25? Jun 24 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 23 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $62 −$22 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 23 Jun 23 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 22 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 22 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 22 Jun 22 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 21? Jun 22 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? Jun 22 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 22 $36 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 22 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 21? Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 20 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 20 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on June 19? Jun 20 $48 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? Jun 20 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 19? Jun 19 $55 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 19 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? Jun 19 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 19 $62 −$6 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $57 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 19? Jun 19 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $62 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 17? Jun 18 $55 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $9 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $56 46m
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $65 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $62 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 25 BUY No 95¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $62 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $65 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $62 15h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $19 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $62 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $63 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $27 19h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $19 19h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $34 19h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $62 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $24 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $38 21h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $62 22h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23? SELL No 62¢ $40 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $48 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $39 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.81 · official $403.91 (match) · 1190 history records