Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:32:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
33 0x336f…7588 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1
other 21% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 67% -1.4%
≤30d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 67% -1.4%
≤90d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 67% -1.4%
all 24 +2.3% -7.5% 67% 67% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 67% -1.4%
10% -16.3% 58% -10.8%
15% -24.4% 54% -19.4%
20% -31.8% 38% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 56¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $81 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 6d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.13 · official $99.13 (match) · 50 history records