trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 33% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 33% | 0% | -8.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | -1.5% | -10.9% | 39% | 9% | -11.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.9% | 9% | -11.4% |
| 10% | -19.4% | 9% | -19.9% |
| 15% | -27.2% | 4% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -34.4% | 0% | -34.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 24 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $4 | $0 | -8% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 22 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 21 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 20 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | May 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | May 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? | Apr 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rumble buy TikTok? | Apr 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? | Apr 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | Mar 30 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 24 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 22 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 7-14? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say 'Peace' 10+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? | Mar 06 | $4 | +$1 | +39% |
| Tulsa vs. North Texas | Mar 04 | $10 | +$3 | +27% |